Position Paper 2018

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ISL position paper anticipates ongoing growth in container fleet and developing segmentation of ship sizes

Following their assumptions, the fully cellular container ship fleet, which comprises about 22 million TEU today, will grow to about 32 million TEU by the year of 2030. During this period, it is assumed that specific size ranges, which are currently equipped with several units, will become less important as new and better-defined standard ship types emerge. This restructuring process, which is also driven by the Panama Canal’s expanded lock gates, might go on throughout the entire next decade. One implication of the assumptions is that, given stable market conditions, the cascade effect will lose in influence as port authorities and ship owners will start to focus on specific size ranges similar to a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, this does not conclude that the ISL expects an end of the growth in ship sizes. In fact, the opposite is anticipated: According to the Bremen-based scientists, ships operated on the Far East-North Range route might have an average capacity of 20.500 TEU by the year 2030.

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